Forecasting effects of foreign direct investment on industrialization towards realization of the Tanzania development vision 2025

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dc.contributor.authorUtouh , Harold M. L.
dc.contributor.authorKitole, Felician Andrew
dc.date.accessioned2024-08-07T07:17:52Z
dc.date.available2024-08-07T07:17:52Z
dc.date.issued2024
dc.descriptionNil
dc.description.abstractPurpose: This paper aims to deepen understanding and knowledge regarding the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) on the industrialization process. Many developing countries aspire to shift from agriculture-centric economies to achieve sustainable development through industrialization. Realizing this goal, however, has been challenging, prompting an examination of the sixty-year trends and effects of FDI on Tanzania’s industrialization trajectory. Methodology: This study employs a comprehensive approach utilizing time series models, specifically the Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model and the Error Correction Model (ECM), to analyze the dynamic influence of FDI on industrialization. By forecasting the five-year trajectory of industrial growth and FDI inflows using data from the Bank of Tanzania and the National Bureau of Statistics spanning 1960 to 2020, this methodological framework aims to provide a nuanced understanding of the FDIindustrialization relationship, contributing valuable insights to the economic development discourse. Findings: The study’s results highlight the significant role of FDI in shaping both short- and long-term industrial progress, which is critical to advancing Tanzania’s industrialization goals. Conversely, factors like exchange rates predominantly impact the short-term industrial landscape. Forecasts from the analysis indicate a projected decline in both FDI and industrialization from 2020 to 2022, followed by a notable upturn from 2022 to 2025. This underscores FDI as a key driver for integrating agriculture-based economies into global value chains, facilitating economic upgrading through capital accumulation—a fundamental catalyst for sustained industrialization.
dc.description.sponsorshipPrivate
dc.identifier.citationAPA
dc.identifier.other10.1080/23322039.2024.2376947
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2024.2376947
dc.identifier.urihttps://scholar.mzumbe.ac.tz/handle/123456789/1013
dc.language.isoen_US
dc.publisherCogent Economics & Finance
dc.subjectforeign direct investment
dc.subjectTanzania Development Vision 2025
dc.subjectgreen growth
dc.subjectindustrialization
dc.subjectVAR
dc.subjectVECM
dc.subjectTanzania
dc.subjectGlobalization
dc.subjectSolow-Swan Growth Model
dc.subjectCobb-Douglas production function
dc.subjectStationarity tests (unit root test)
dc.subjectCointegration test
dc.subjectVector error correction model (VECM)
dc.subjectforeign direct investment (FDI) and industrialization - Tanzania
dc.subjectVector Autoregressive (VAR)
dc.titleForecasting effects of foreign direct investment on industrialization towards realization of the Tanzania development vision 2025
dc.typeArticle
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