Faculty of Social Sciences

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    External debts as panacea to economic growth challenges in selected Eastern African countries: An application of the autoregressive distributed lag mode
    (Science Mundi, 2024) Utouh, Harold M.L.; Tile, Augustino; Sesabo, Jennifer Kasanda
    Foreign aid has significantly influenced medium- and long-term development initiatives in Eastern African countries. Project aid and non-project aid are the two main categories that describe foreign economic assistance (loans, credits, and grants). The primary aim of foreign aid has been to supplement the internal resources needed to quicken the economic development of the nations in Eastern Africa. This study investigated the influence of external debt on the economic growth of Eastern African countries (Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and Tanzania) using the autoregressive distributive lag mode and panel data (1970–2020). The findings revealed that external debt had a significant adverse effect on economic growth. In Burundi, an increase in external debt reduces GDP by 5% in the short run, while in the long run, it reduces GDP by 19%; in Tanzania, it decreases GDP by 22%; and in Kenya, it reduces the GDP by 13%. Conversely, the findings indicated that the increased level of external debt positively influenced Uganda's GDP (0.03%) but was not statistically significant. Therefore, it is recommended that Eastern African countries source their income, apart from more external concessional debt, through bilateral or multilateral arrangements to plug into their budget deficits. Also, it is recommended that East African governments develop their external debt initiatives that offer further profitable investment opportunities to repay their foreign debt gradually. Moreover, strategies in the East African countries must be geared towards strengthening revenue mobilization to provide avenues to balance their external debts. For instance, improving the informal sector in these countries is a viable base for increasing revenue through taxes
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    An in-depth analysis of Tanzania's export growth trajectory from 1992 to 2021
    (African Journal of Empirical Research, 2024) Utouh, Harold Martin Lemnge; Ng’wina, Shibabay John
    This paper analyses Tanzania's export performance from 1992-2021. Exports remain an important aspect of earning foreign currency. To ensure the country's robust economic growth, it is also imperative to increase export value. To analyse Tanzania's export performance, time series data from the World Bank was used. The comparative advantage theory guided this study in analysing export performance. Also, the ARIMA model was used to figure out the relationship between export, FDI, and nominal exchange rate, and the study revealed that export, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows, and exchange rates have a relationship with export performance. The ARIMA model was used because of its effectiveness in forecasting and capturing patterns, trends, and seasonality. This study is important because it examines the importance of FDI and exchange rates on export performance. Furthermore, this study provides policymakers with actionable recommendations based on empirical evidence, helping them make informed decisions regarding export promotion initiatives, particularly in creating a conducive environment for FDI and the importance of managing nominal exchange rates. To stimulate the country's exports, governments s
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    Relationship between foreign direct investment, exports and economic growth in Tanzania: A time series analysis
    (Mzumbe University, 2013) Bomani, Bertha Alfred
    Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and exports play a significant role in promoting economic growth in many countries. However, empirical studies have not found consistent results, with some literature indicating that FDI and export have adverse impacts to the economy. This study examined long run and causality relationships between FDI, exports and economic growth for Tanzania. The study used time series data for 30 years (1980- 2010) which were obtained from TIC and UNCTAD. By using Johansen test of cointegration, Vector Autoregression model and Granger causality test the study found that there was a single cointegrating vector. The equation was relating FDI and exports (as independent variables) to Economic growth, the dependent variable. Furthermore, there was unidirectional causality relationship with the direction from FDI and exports to GDP growth rate (economic growth). There was also a unidirectional causality with the direction from FDI to exports. Therefore, FDI Granger caused GDP growth rate and exports, while exports Granger caused GDP growth rate only. This further implied that, FDI have a direct and indirect causality to GDP growth rate. This observation necessitated the special consideration for making FDI working for growth. Likewise for total exports which had positive and significant relationship to economic growth. The findings in this study support the export-led growth hypothesis and FDI as the engine for economic growth. For export and FDI to effectively promote growth, the study recommends that policy frameworks and incentive packages should be competitive and vigorous enough.
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    External debts as panacea to economic growth challenges in selected eastern African countries: An application of the autoregressive distributed lag mode
    (SCIENCE MUNDI, 2024) Tile, Augustine; Utouh, Harold M.L.; Sesabo, Jennifer K.
    Foreign aid has significantly influenced medium- and long-term development initiatives in Eastern African countries. Project aid and non-project aid are the two main categories that describe foreign economic assistance (loans, credits, and grants). The primary aim of foreign aid has been to supplement the internal resources needed to quicken the economic development of the nations in Eastern Africa. This study investigated the influence of external debt on the economic growth of Eastern African countries (Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and Tanzania) using the autoregressive distributive lag mode and panel data (1970–2020). The findings revealed that external debt had a significant adverse effect on economic growth. In Burundi, an increase in external debt reduces GDP by 5% in the short run, while in the long run, it reduces GDP by 19%; in Tanzania, it decreases GDP by 22%; and in Kenya, it reduces the GDP by 13%. Conversely, the findings indicated that the increased level of external debt positively influenced Uganda's GDP (0.03%) but was not statistically significant. Therefore, it is recommended that Eastern African countries source their income, apart from more external concessional debt, through bilateral or multilateral arrangements to plug into their budget deficits. Also, it is recommended that East African governments develop their external debt initiatives that offer further profitable investment opportunities to repay their foreign debt gradually. Moreover, strategies in the East African countries must be geared towards strengthening revenue mobilization to provide avenues to balance their external debts. For instance, improving the informal sector in these countries is a viable base for increasing revenue through taxes.