Research Articles[FSS-Eco]

Permanent URI for this collectionhttp://192.168.30.20:4000/handle/123456789/131

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Start date: 2011Subject: search.filters.subject.Economic Growth

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    External debts as panacea to economic growth challenges in selected Eastern African countries: An application of the autoregressive distributed lag mode
    (Science Mundi, 2024) Utouh, Harold M.L.; Tile, Augustino; Sesabo, Jennifer Kasanda
    Foreign aid has significantly influenced medium- and long-term development initiatives in Eastern African countries. Project aid and non-project aid are the two main categories that describe foreign economic assistance (loans, credits, and grants). The primary aim of foreign aid has been to supplement the internal resources needed to quicken the economic development of the nations in Eastern Africa. This study investigated the influence of external debt on the economic growth of Eastern African countries (Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and Tanzania) using the autoregressive distributive lag mode and panel data (1970–2020). The findings revealed that external debt had a significant adverse effect on economic growth. In Burundi, an increase in external debt reduces GDP by 5% in the short run, while in the long run, it reduces GDP by 19%; in Tanzania, it decreases GDP by 22%; and in Kenya, it reduces the GDP by 13%. Conversely, the findings indicated that the increased level of external debt positively influenced Uganda's GDP (0.03%) but was not statistically significant. Therefore, it is recommended that Eastern African countries source their income, apart from more external concessional debt, through bilateral or multilateral arrangements to plug into their budget deficits. Also, it is recommended that East African governments develop their external debt initiatives that offer further profitable investment opportunities to repay their foreign debt gradually. Moreover, strategies in the East African countries must be geared towards strengthening revenue mobilization to provide avenues to balance their external debts. For instance, improving the informal sector in these countries is a viable base for increasing revenue through taxes
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    An in-depth analysis of Tanzania's export growth trajectory from 1992 to 2021
    (African Journal of Empirical Research, 2024) Utouh, Harold Martin Lemnge; Ng’wina, Shibabay John
    This paper analyses Tanzania's export performance from 1992-2021. Exports remain an important aspect of earning foreign currency. To ensure the country's robust economic growth, it is also imperative to increase export value. To analyse Tanzania's export performance, time series data from the World Bank was used. The comparative advantage theory guided this study in analysing export performance. Also, the ARIMA model was used to figure out the relationship between export, FDI, and nominal exchange rate, and the study revealed that export, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows, and exchange rates have a relationship with export performance. The ARIMA model was used because of its effectiveness in forecasting and capturing patterns, trends, and seasonality. This study is important because it examines the importance of FDI and exchange rates on export performance. Furthermore, this study provides policymakers with actionable recommendations based on empirical evidence, helping them make informed decisions regarding export promotion initiatives, particularly in creating a conducive environment for FDI and the importance of managing nominal exchange rates. To stimulate the country's exports, governments s
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    External debts as panacea to economic growth challenges in selected eastern African countries: An application of the autoregressive distributed lag mode
    (SCIENCE MUNDI, 2024) Tile, Augustine; Utouh, Harold M.L.; Sesabo, Jennifer K.
    Foreign aid has significantly influenced medium- and long-term development initiatives in Eastern African countries. Project aid and non-project aid are the two main categories that describe foreign economic assistance (loans, credits, and grants). The primary aim of foreign aid has been to supplement the internal resources needed to quicken the economic development of the nations in Eastern Africa. This study investigated the influence of external debt on the economic growth of Eastern African countries (Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and Tanzania) using the autoregressive distributive lag mode and panel data (1970–2020). The findings revealed that external debt had a significant adverse effect on economic growth. In Burundi, an increase in external debt reduces GDP by 5% in the short run, while in the long run, it reduces GDP by 19%; in Tanzania, it decreases GDP by 22%; and in Kenya, it reduces the GDP by 13%. Conversely, the findings indicated that the increased level of external debt positively influenced Uganda's GDP (0.03%) but was not statistically significant. Therefore, it is recommended that Eastern African countries source their income, apart from more external concessional debt, through bilateral or multilateral arrangements to plug into their budget deficits. Also, it is recommended that East African governments develop their external debt initiatives that offer further profitable investment opportunities to repay their foreign debt gradually. Moreover, strategies in the East African countries must be geared towards strengthening revenue mobilization to provide avenues to balance their external debts. For instance, improving the informal sector in these countries is a viable base for increasing revenue through taxes.